Colorado Eagles at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Colorado Eagles

1:3

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

COLCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

64%36%

xG: 4.63.2
High danger: 87
Chances: 1711
Shots: 4732

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

47Shots on goal32

17Scoring chances11

8High-danger chances7

4.57Expected goals3.23

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–14	4–6	2–3	1.3–1.6
2nd	14–6	7–1	3–1	1.4–0.4
3rd	21–12	6–4	3–3	2.0–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 47
Saves: 46
Allowed: 1
xGA: 4.57
GSAx: +3.57

Ivan Prosvetov

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.22
GSAx: +1.22

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:23Penalty
1st 7:32Penalty
1st 11:12Penalty
1st 15:41Penalty
1st 15:41Penalty
1st 17:44Penalty
1st 18:31Ben Jones (0–1)5v4 · medium · tip · 24 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
2nd 1:23Penalty
2nd 1:23Penalty
2nd 1:23Penalty
2nd 1:23Penalty
2nd 16:08Penalty
3rd 4:19Adam Klapka (0–2)high · wrist · 17 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
3rd 18:00Riley Tufte (1–2)low · wrist · 34 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 19:13Brett Sutter (1–3)empty net · low · wrist · 97 ft