AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 3

Bridgeport Islanders at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Bridgeport Islanders
4:1
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

BRISPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
71%29%
xG
4.32.3
High danger
93
Chances
169
Shots
3925

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal25
16Scoring chances9
9High-danger chances3
4.28Expected goals2.32

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st18–55–22–01.9–0.3
2nd11–128–54–21.5–1.4
3rd10–83–23–10.9–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR212:08 of the 3rd7:527:52+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis
Shots faced
39
Saves
35
Allowed
4
xGA
4.28
GSAx
+0.28
Henrik Tikkanen
Shots faced
25
Saves
24
Allowed
1
xGA
2.32
GSAx
+1.32

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:19Penalty
  • 1st 0:19Penalty
  • 1st 0:53Penalty
  • 1st 0:53Penalty
  • 1st 0:53Penalty
  • 1st 6:24Penalty
  • 1st 6:57Penalty
  • 1st 6:57Penalty
  • 1st 9:10Matthew Maggio (1–0)low · 36 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 1st 10:24Penalty
  • 1st 11:09Penalty
  • 1st 11:18Carsen Twarynski (2–0)5v4 · grade A · 15 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 1st 19:23Brian Pinho (3–0)low · 41 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 2nd 1:39Penalty
  • 2nd 6:29Penalty
  • 2nd 6:29Penalty
  • 2nd 8:05Penalty
  • 2nd 8:05Penalty
  • 2nd 8:05Penalty
  • 2nd 8:05Penalty
  • 2nd 8:05Penalty
  • 2nd 12:11Mikhail Abramov (3–1)grade A · 14 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 2nd 18:07Penalty
  • 3rd 11:39Penalty
  • 3rd 12:43Penalty
  • 3rd 13:41Penalty
  • 3rd 16:48Karson Kuhlman (4–1)empty net · low · 50 ft · beat Colten Ellis