AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 3

Abbotsford Canucks at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Abbotsford Canucks
1:2
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

ABBONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
21%79%
xG
1.22.7
High danger
35
Chances
36
Shots
1835

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

18Shots on goal35
3Scoring chances6
3High-danger chances5
1.22Expected goals2.66

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–110–10–10.2–0.5
2nd5–93–13–10.7–0.5
3rd8–150–40–30.3–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ABB−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ABB117:35 of the 3rd2:252:25+0.051 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
35
Saves
33
Allowed
2
xGA
2.66
GSAx
+0.66
Shots faced
18
Saves
17
Allowed
1
xGA
1.22
GSAx
+0.22

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:54Penalty
  • 2nd 10:16Penalty
  • 2nd 11:38Sheldon Dries (1–0)4v5 · high · 10 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 2nd 12:04Penalty
  • 3rd 5:26Penalty
  • 3rd 9:46Francesco Pinelli (1–1)high · rebound · 12 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
  • 3rd 17:35Luke Rowe (1–2)low · 92 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs