AHLDashboard
‹ Monday, March 4

Bakersfield Condors at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Bakersfield Condors
3:5
Final
San Diego Gulls

The sheet

BAKSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
25%75%
xG
2.64.2
High danger
39
Chances
915
Shots
2734

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SD above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal34
9Scoring chances15
3High-danger chances9
2.65Expected goals4.24

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–135–22–11.1–1.2
2nd13–93–70–51.0–1.6
3rd3–121–61–30.5–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
34
Saves
29
Allowed
5
xGA
4.24
GSAx
-0.76
Tomas Suchanek
Shots faced
27
Saves
24
Allowed
3
xGA
2.65
GSAx
-0.35

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:27Ben King (0–1)low · 58 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 5:51Penalty
  • 1st 14:49Penalty
  • 1st 15:50Glenn Gawdin (0–2)5v4 · grade A · 18 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 16:53Raphael Lavoie (1–2)low · 35 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
  • 1st 19:33Trevor Carrick (1–3)low · 35 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 5:45Drake Caggiula (2–3)low · 33 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
  • 2nd 13:18Penalty
  • 2nd 13:22Penalty
  • 2nd 15:04Penalty
  • 2nd 15:04Penalty
  • 2nd 15:29Penalty
  • 2nd 19:18Penalty
  • 2nd 19:59Seth Griffith (3–3)5v4 · low · 39 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
  • 3rd 13:53Ben King (3–4)high · 8 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 18:47Josh Lopina (3–5)empty net · grade A · rebound · 27 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 19:21Penalty