AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, March 5

Calgary Wranglers at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Calgary Wranglers
5:4
Final / OT
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

CGYTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
47%53%
xG
3.63.3
High danger
67
Chances
1313
Shots
3129

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal29
13Scoring chances13
6High-danger chances7
3.55Expected goals3.33

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–121–60–20.4–1.2
2nd8–103–51–50.8–1.6
3rd16–79–25–02.2–0.5
OT1–00–00–00.1–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY116:56 of the 3rd3:042:05+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
31
Saves
26
Allowed
5
xGA
3.55
GSAx
-1.45
Oscar Dansk
Shots faced
29
Saves
25
Allowed
4
xGA
3.33
GSAx
-0.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:29Penalty
  • 1st 5:48Cameron Hebig (0–1)medium · 8 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
  • 1st 8:27Adam Klapka (1–1)medium · 28 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 9:44Milos Kelemen (1–2)high · 10 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
  • 1st 14:13Penalty
  • 1st 14:13Penalty
  • 1st 14:45Penalty
  • 2nd 0:34Justin Kirkland (1–3)low · 42 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
  • 2nd 1:25Penalty
  • 2nd 3:06William Strömgren (2–3)5v4 · low · 37 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 3:54Penalty
  • 2nd 5:26Austin Poganski (2–4)5v4 · high · 30 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
  • 2nd 6:49Penalty
  • 2nd 10:18Penalty
  • 2nd 11:51Penalty
  • 3rd 4:59Penalty
  • 3rd 9:28Penalty
  • 3rd 10:28Ben Jones (3–4)5v4 · high · backhand · 13 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 10:53Penalty
  • 3rd 15:00Penalty
  • 3rd 19:01Mitch McLain (4–4)grade A · 9 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • OT 1:31Penalty
  • OT 2:40Cole Schwindt (5–4)5v4 · low · 46 ft · beat Matthew Villalta