AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, March 6

Manitoba Moose at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Manitoba Moose
5:4
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

MBMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
31%69%
xG
2.73.1
High danger
24
Chances
911
Shots
3735

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal35
9Scoring chances11
2High-danger chances4
2.74Expected goals3.11

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–112–21–00.8–0.7
2nd10–123–50–20.6–1.2
3rd17–124–41–21.3–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL117:08 of the 3rd2:522:52+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Yaroslav Askarov
Shots faced
37
Saves
32
Allowed
5
xGA
2.74
GSAx
-2.26
Thomas Milic
Shots faced
35
Saves
31
Allowed
4
xGA
3.11
GSAx
-0.89

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:52Jeff Malott (1–0)high · 6 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 1st 8:24Brad Lambert (2–0)low · 20 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 1st 18:47Jasper Weatherby (2–1)low · 45 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 1:37Penalty
  • 2nd 11:15Reid Schaefer (2–2)medium · rebound · 8 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 14:34Jeff Malott (3–2)medium · 31 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 2nd 17:11Juuso Pärssinen (3–3)high · 9 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 0:21Penalty
  • 3rd 5:35Juuso Pärssinen (3–4)high · rebound · 11 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 6:58Penalty
  • 3rd 6:58Penalty
  • 3rd 6:58Penalty
  • 3rd 7:34Jeff Malott (4–4)5v4 · medium · 16 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 3rd 15:08Penalty
  • 3rd 17:08Axel Jonsson-Fjällby (5–4)5v4 · high · rebound · 24 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty