Abbotsford Canucks at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Abbotsford Canucks

3:5

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

ABBONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

45%55%

xG: 2.53.1
High danger: 54
Chances: 913
Shots: 2432

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal32

9Scoring chances13

5High-danger chances4

2.52Expected goals3.10

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–12	3–3	3–0	1.0–0.8
2nd	9–13	2–8	0–3	0.6–1.6
3rd	10–7	4–2	2–1	0.9–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 27
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.10
GSAx: -1.90

Aaron Dell

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 21
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.52
GSAx: -0.48

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:58Sheldon Dries (1–0)low · 23 ft · beat Aaron Dell
1st 10:49Filip Johansson (2–0)low · 32 ft · beat Aaron Dell
1st 11:59Penalty
2nd 3:15Penalty
2nd 3:15Hayden Hodgson (2–1)high · 13 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 11:08Penalty
2nd 14:34T.J. Tynan (2–2)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 17:23Penalty
2nd 17:35Francesco Pinelli (2–3)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 1:07Arshdeep Bains (3–3)high · 11 ft · beat Aaron Dell
3rd 13:26Samuel Fagemo (3–4)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 18:21Penalty
3rd 19:47Samuel Fagemo (3–5)empty net · low · 80 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo