AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 8

Toronto Marlies at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Toronto Marlies
7:6
Final / SO
Utica Comets

The sheet

TORUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
56%44%
xG
3.02.5
High danger
45
Chances
911
Shots
3224

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
UTC above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal24
9Scoring chances11
4High-danger chances5
2.95Expected goals2.48

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–82–31–10.6–0.8
2nd10–92–61–30.7–1.1
3rd12–64–22–11.3–0.5
OT4–11–00–00.4–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TOR0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TOR116:56 of the 3rd3:040:50+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Källgren
Shots faced
32
Saves
26
Allowed
6
xGA
2.95
GSAx
-3.05
Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
24
Saves
18
Allowed
6
xGA
2.48
GSAx
-3.52

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:09Logan Shaw (1–0)low · 42 ft · beat Erik Källgren
  • 1st 4:50Penalty
  • 1st 9:02Brian Halonen (1–1)high · 9 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 12:12Penalty
  • 1st 15:06Penalty
  • 1st 17:56Zach Solow (2–1)medium · 9 ft · beat Erik Källgren
  • 2nd 7:37Penalty
  • 2nd 8:09Ryan Schmelzer (2–2)4v5 · high · 9 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 12:14Penalty
  • 2nd 13:17Nolan Foote (2–3)5v4 · high · 30 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 14:55Kieffer Bellows (3–3)low · 44 ft · beat Erik Källgren
  • 2nd 16:02Graeme Clarke (3–4)medium · 25 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 16:16Nolan Foote (3–5)high · rebound · 21 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 0:28Ryan Tverberg (4–5)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Erik Källgren
  • 3rd 0:58Penalty
  • 3rd 3:05Logan Shaw (5–5)grade A · 14 ft · beat Erik Källgren
  • 3rd 13:07Justin Dowling (5–6)high · 13 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 3rd 17:46Nick Abruzzese (6–6)high · 8 ft · beat Erik Källgren