Colorado Eagles at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Colorado Eagles

1:3

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

COLBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

35%65%

xG: 2.93.3
High danger: 46
Chances: 912
Shots: 3230

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal30

9Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances6

2.93Expected goals3.28

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–7	3–2	1–0	0.8–0.5
2nd	9–10	5–4	2–2	1.3–1.0
3rd	13–13	1–6	1–4	0.9–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	2	12:12 of the 3rd	7:48	7:48	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jack Campbell

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 31
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.93
GSAx: +1.93

Ivan Prosvetov

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.28
GSAx: +0.28

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:40Ondrej Pavel (1–0)medium · wrist · 24 ft · beat Jack Campbell
1st 5:33Penalty
1st 7:24Penalty
1st 16:12Dylan Holloway (1–1)low · tip · 11 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
1st 17:48Penalty
1st 17:48Penalty
1st 18:20Penalty
2nd 1:59Penalty
2nd 9:28Penalty
2nd 13:18Penalty
2nd 15:26Adam Erne (1–2)low · wrist · 17 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
3rd 0:26Raphael Lavoie (1–3)low · slap · 31 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
3rd 4:19Penalty
3rd 8:10Penalty
3rd 10:39Penalty
3rd 19:37Penalty