Coachella Valley Firebirds at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds

5:1

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

CVSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

84%16%

xG: 3.01.6
High danger: 82
Chances: 136
Shots: 3119

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal19

13Scoring chances6

8High-danger chances2

3.00Expected goals1.60

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–8	4–2	3–0	1.0–0.5
2nd	13–7	6–2	3–1	1.3–0.7
3rd	8–4	3–2	2–1	0.7–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	5	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.004 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Tomas Suchanek

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 18
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.25
GSAx: -2.75

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 18
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.60
GSAx: +0.60

Alex Stalock

Shots faced: 8
Saves: 8
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.75
GSAx: +0.75

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:16Penalty
1st 16:55Penalty
1st 18:37John Hayden (1–0)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
2nd 0:33Max McCormick (2–0)high · 9 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
2nd 8:42Ryan Winterton (3–0)low · 11 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
2nd 9:40Penalty
2nd 18:12Penalty
2nd 18:28Penalty
2nd 18:28Penalty
2nd 18:48Connor Carrick (4–0)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
2nd 19:19Tucker Robertson (5–0)medium · 17 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
3rd 8:49Penalty
3rd 8:49Penalty
3rd 12:06Ben King (5–1)high · 9 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
3rd 15:13Penalty
3rd 15:13Penalty
3rd 15:13Penalty
3rd 15:13Penalty
3rd 15:13Penalty