AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 8

Abbotsford Canucks at Henderson Silver Knights

The Dollar Loan Center · Henderson, NV

Abbotsford Canucks
2:4
Final
Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

ABBHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
41%59%
xG
1.82.3
High danger
43
Chances
69
Shots
2030

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HSK above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal30
6Scoring chances9
4High-danger chances3
1.80Expected goals2.29

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–93–43–01.1–0.7
2nd2–141–30–10.2–1.0
3rd8–72–21–20.5–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ABB−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ABB116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo
Shots faced
30
Saves
26
Allowed
4
xGA
2.29
GSAx
-1.71
Jiří Patera
Shots faced
20
Saves
18
Allowed
2
xGA
1.80
GSAx
-0.20

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:58Penalty
  • 1st 6:44Cooper Walker (1–0)low · snap · 24 ft · beat Jiří Patera
  • 1st 10:23Penalty
  • 1st 17:07Penalty
  • 1st 17:07Penalty
  • 1st 17:07Penalty
  • 1st 17:07Jake Bischoff (1–1)medium · wrist · 25 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 4:36Penalty
  • 2nd 6:30Penalty
  • 2nd 6:38Jake Bischoff (1–2)5v4 · medium · slap · 35 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 16:17Penalty
  • 2nd 18:28Aidan McDonough (2–2)low · slap · 26 ft · beat Jiří Patera
  • 3rd 9:22Brendan Brisson (2–3)high · wrist · 12 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 3rd 17:51Kaedan Korczak (2–4)empty net · low · wrist · 167 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo