Grand Rapids Griffins at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Grand Rapids Griffins

2:4

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

GRMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

16%84%

xG: 1.73.2
High danger: 16
Chances: 611
Shots: 2133

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal33

6Scoring chances11

1High-danger chances6

1.75Expected goals3.24

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–14	1–6	0–4	0.4–1.6
2nd	8–9	2–1	0–1	0.7–0.7
3rd	8–10	3–4	1–1	0.7–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	2	12:12 of the 3rd	7:48	6:33	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael Hutchinson

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.24
GSAx: -0.76

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.75
GSAx: -0.25

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:24Penalty
1st 10:05Liam Foudy (0–1)5v4 · high · rebound · 9 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
1st 15:41Phil Tomasino (0–2)high · 10 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
2nd 4:36Carter Mazur (1–2)low · 35 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 5:35Penalty
2nd 7:07Penalty
2nd 16:38Penalty
2nd 17:43Juuso Pärssinen (1–3)4v5 · low · 36 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
3rd 11:40Penalty
3rd 15:41Tim Gettinger (2–3)low · 55 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
3rd 18:51Liam Foudy (2–4)empty net · medium · 12 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson