AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 9

Manitoba Moose at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Manitoba Moose
4:1
Final
Iowa Wild

The sheet

MBIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
67%33%
xG
3.82.5
High danger
85
Chances
1511
Shots
3123

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
IA above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal23
15Scoring chances11
8High-danger chances5
3.78Expected goals2.54

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–96–34–11.3–0.8
2nd7–83–31–10.7–0.7
3rd16–66–53–31.7–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jesper Wallstedt
Shots faced
31
Saves
27
Allowed
4
xGA
3.78
GSAx
-0.22
Thomas Milic
Shots faced
23
Saves
22
Allowed
1
xGA
2.54
GSAx
+1.54

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 19:42Penalty
  • 2nd 2:39Penalty
  • 2nd 3:33Penalty
  • 2nd 7:57Penalty
  • 2nd 12:07Penalty
  • 3rd 1:44Caedan Bankier (0–1)high · rebound · 33 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 6:39Penalty
  • 3rd 9:10Penalty
  • 3rd 11:58Penalty
  • 3rd 13:22Kristian Reichel (1–1)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 3rd 15:06Penalty
  • 3rd 15:06Penalty
  • 3rd 15:06Jeff Malott (2–1)medium · 9 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 3rd 17:22Simon Lundmark (3–1)empty net · low · 88 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 3rd 18:55Ville Heinola (4–1)empty net · grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt