Rochester Americans at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Rochester Americans

2:4

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

ROCSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

17%83%

xG: 1.33.0
High danger: 14
Chances: 38
Shots: 1934

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal34

3Scoring chances8

1High-danger chances4

1.30Expected goals3.04

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–9	0–1	0–1	0.2–0.8
2nd	11–12	3–3	1–1	0.9–1.0
3rd	3–13	0–4	0–2	0.2–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dustin Tokarski

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 30
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.04
GSAx: -0.96

Hugo Alnefelt

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 17
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.30
GSAx: -0.70

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:32Alex Barré-Boulet (0–1)grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
1st 15:10Michael Mersch (1–1)low · 19 ft · beat Hugo Alnefelt
2nd 11:46Penalty
2nd 13:58Penalty
2nd 16:03Brandon Biro (2–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Hugo Alnefelt
2nd 18:35Penalty
2nd 18:52Jack Finley (2–2)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
3rd 6:13Penalty
3rd 7:12Cole Koepke (2–3)5v4 · medium · 41 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
3rd 10:29Penalty
3rd 19:34Waltteri Merelä (2–4)empty net · low · 34 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski