AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 9

Toronto Marlies at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Toronto Marlies
1:5
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

TORSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
69%31%
xG
5.32.9
High danger
94
Chances
2212
Shots
4829

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

024P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

48Shots on goal29
22Scoring chances12
9High-danger chances4
5.27Expected goals2.93

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–95–52–11.3–1.0
2nd15–98–02–01.6–0.6
3rd21–119–75–32.5–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TOR−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TOR38:35 of the 3rd11:2511:25+0.016 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis
Shots faced
48
Saves
47
Allowed
1
xGA
5.27
GSAx
+4.27
Keith Petruzzelli
Shots faced
29
Saves
24
Allowed
5
xGA
2.93
GSAx
-2.07

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 8:17Penalty
  • 1st 13:51Penalty
  • 1st 14:29Adam Gaudette (0–1)5v4 · medium · 16 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
  • 1st 19:53Penalty
  • 2nd 3:38Adam Gaudette (0–2)low · 41 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
  • 2nd 9:26Penalty
  • 2nd 11:04Penalty
  • 2nd 13:33Alex Steeves (1–2)low · 24 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 2nd 16:15Hunter Skinner (1–3)low · 59 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
  • 3rd 6:42Penalty
  • 3rd 7:32Penalty
  • 3rd 8:35Joseph Duszak (1–4)high · 8 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
  • 3rd 8:44Penalty
  • 3rd 8:44Penalty
  • 3rd 8:44Penalty
  • 3rd 11:15Penalty
  • 3rd 11:50Penalty
  • 3rd 18:01Adam Gaudette (1–5)empty net · low · 52 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli