Rockford IceHogs at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Rockford IceHogs

4:1

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

RFDCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

85%15%

xG: 3.21.8
High danger: 71
Chances: 155
Shots: 3124

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal24

15Scoring chances5

7High-danger chances1

3.21Expected goals1.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–9	6–2	3–0	1.5–0.7
2nd	9–9	5–1	3–1	1.1–0.6
3rd	8–6	4–2	1–0	0.7–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.77
GSAx: +0.77

Julian Junca

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 19
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.83
GSAx: +1.83

Adam Scheel

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 8
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.38
GSAx: -2.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:02Jackson Cates (1–0)medium · 18 ft · beat Adam Scheel
1st 2:42Penalty
1st 5:27Jackson Cates (2–0)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Adam Scheel
1st 8:47Penalty
1st 9:48Brett Seney (3–0)5v4 · medium · 32 ft · beat Adam Scheel
1st 16:14Penalty
1st 16:51Cole Guttman (4–0)5v4 · high · 28 ft · beat Adam Scheel
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 3:56Penalty
2nd 5:39Josh Melnick (4–1)5v4 · high · 18 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 4:00Penalty
3rd 5:29Penalty
3rd 8:25Penalty
3rd 13:28Penalty
3rd 13:47Penalty