AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 9

San Jose Barracuda at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

San Jose Barracuda
3:6
Final
Texas Stars

The sheet

SJTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
34%66%
xG
2.83.5
High danger
58
Chances
714
Shots
3030

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TEX above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal30
7Scoring chances14
5High-danger chances8
2.75Expected goals3.54

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–51–20–10.5–0.6
2nd4–181–71–40.4–2.1
3rd19–75–54–31.8–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SJ−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SJ310:55 of the 3rd9:059:05+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray
Shots faced
30
Saves
27
Allowed
3
xGA
2.75
GSAx
-0.25
Eetu Makiniemi
Shots faced
30
Saves
24
Allowed
6
xGA
3.54
GSAx
-2.46

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 14:17Penalty
  • 2nd 1:53Mark Rassell (0–1)high · 10 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 2nd 2:21Matěj Blümel (0–2)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 2nd 7:28Ozzy Wiesblatt (1–2)high · 9 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 10:18Penalty
  • 2nd 18:47Penalty
  • 2nd 18:47Penalty
  • 2nd 18:47Penalty
  • 2nd 19:53Matěj Blümel (1–3)5v4 · high · 29 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 3rd 1:59Penalty
  • 3rd 10:55Jack Becker (1–4)high · 18 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 3rd 12:26Jack Becker (1–5)medium · 12 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 3rd 14:08Nikolai Knyzhov (2–5)low · 30 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 19:31Scott Sabourin (3–5)grade A · rebound · 30 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 19:42Fredrik Karlström (3–6)empty net · high · 15 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi