Tucson Roadrunners at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Tucson Roadrunners

2:7

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

TUCCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

59%41%

xG: 3.62.7
High danger: 65
Chances: 1415
Shots: 3930

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal30

14Scoring chances15

6High-danger chances5

3.65Expected goals2.75

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–12	3–6	2–3	1.0–1.1
2nd	17–9	6–4	4–0	1.7–0.8
3rd	12–9	5–5	0–2	1.0–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	3	5:43 of the 3rd	14:17	14:17	+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 23
Allowed: 7
xGA: 2.74
GSAx: -4.26

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.63
GSAx: +1.63

Chris Driedger

Shots faced: 10
Saves: 9
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.02
GSAx: +0.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:59Kole Lind (0–1)high · 12 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 5:49Cameron Hughes (0–2)medium · 14 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 10:54Penalty
1st 13:26Cameron Crotty (1–2)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Chris Driedger
1st 14:58Penalty
2nd 4:44Penalty
2nd 10:41John Hayden (1–3)low · 40 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 10:58Curtis Douglas (2–3)grade A · 6 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
2nd 19:34Penalty
3rd 3:11Marian Studenic (2–4)medium · 18 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 5:43Max McCormick (2–5)high · 11 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 6:54Ryan Winterton (2–6)high · 22 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 14:46John Hayden (2–7)medium · 18 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 15:47Penalty