AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 9

Colorado Eagles at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Colorado Eagles
1:6
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

COLBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
21%79%
xG
1.52.4
High danger
15
Chances
56
Shots
2227

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal27
5Scoring chances6
1High-danger chances5
1.52Expected goals2.36

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–73–11–10.6–0.4
2nd8–90–20–20.5–0.9
3rd8–112–30–20.5–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

COL−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
COL30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ivan Prosvetov
Shots faced
27
Saves
21
Allowed
6
xGA
2.36
GSAx
-3.64
Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
22
Saves
21
Allowed
1
xGA
1.52
GSAx
+0.52

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:02Penalty
  • 1st 15:12Cameron Wright (0–1)low · wrist · 33 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 2nd 0:18Lane Pederson (0–2)high · wrist · 16 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 2nd 2:44Penalty
  • 2nd 17:08Penalty
  • 2nd 18:10Penalty
  • 2nd 18:10Penalty
  • 2nd 19:52Noel Hoefenmayer (0–3)low · wrist · 44 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 3rd 2:00Lane Pederson (0–4)5v4 · low · wrist · 20 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 3rd 2:17Penalty
  • 3rd 2:17Penalty
  • 3rd 8:23Cameron Wright (0–5)high · backhand · 15 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 3rd 10:00Matvey Petrov (0–6)low · wrist · 36 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 3rd 10:18Peter Holland (1–6)medium · backhand · 21 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 14:00Penalty
  • 3rd 15:57Penalty
  • 3rd 15:57Penalty
  • 3rd 19:50Penalty
  • 3rd 19:50Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty