AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 10

Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Lehigh Valley Phantoms
4:3
Final
Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

LVBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
39%61%
xG
2.63.0
High danger
13
Chances
1211
Shots
3432

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BRI above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal32
12Scoring chances11
1High-danger chances3
2.55Expected goals3.01

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–84–21–01.0–0.6
2nd15–117–40–11.2–1.0
3rd7–131–50–20.3–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BRI−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BRI212:12 of the 3rd7:487:48+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Henrik Tikkanen
Shots faced
34
Saves
30
Allowed
4
xGA
2.55
GSAx
-1.45
Cal Petersen
Shots faced
32
Saves
29
Allowed
3
xGA
3.01
GSAx
+0.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:28Adam Karashik (1–0)low · 37 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 1st 4:04Penalty
  • 1st 4:47Rhett Gardner (2–0)5v4 · high · 17 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 1st 11:17Jeff Kubiak (2–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 1st 12:15Penalty
  • 1st 13:49Penalty
  • 1st 17:24Penalty
  • 1st 17:24Penalty
  • 1st 19:07Tyce Thompson (2–2)low · 31 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 2nd 4:26Louie Belpedio (3–2)low · 52 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 2nd 7:14Rhett Gardner (4–2)low · 33 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 2nd 15:57Penalty
  • 3rd 17:00Penalty
  • 3rd 17:00Penalty
  • 3rd 17:00Daylan Kuefler (4–3)high · 15 ft · beat Cal Petersen