AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 10

Springfield Thunderbirds at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Springfield Thunderbirds
0:5
Final
Providence Bruins

The sheet

SPRPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
45%55%
xG
3.33.2
High danger
46
Chances
914
Shots
3633

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
PRO above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal33
9Scoring chances14
4High-danger chances6
3.31Expected goals3.17

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–112–41–30.9–1.1
2nd12–104–63–11.4–1.0
3rd12–123–40–21.0–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR212:12 of the 3rd7:487:48+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Bussi
Shots faced
36
Saves
36
Allowed
0
xGA
3.31
GSAx
+3.31
Colten Ellis
Shots faced
33
Saves
28
Allowed
5
xGA
3.17
GSAx
-1.83

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 9:54Penalty
  • 1st 11:23Jayson Megna (0–1)4v5 · high · 8 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 1st 15:13Penalty
  • 2nd 0:35Penalty
  • 2nd 12:15Penalty
  • 2nd 12:15Penalty
  • 2nd 13:43Penalty
  • 3rd 3:58Oskar Steen (0–2)medium · 35 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 3rd 13:45Joey Abate (0–3)high · 13 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 3rd 15:37John Beecher (0–4)low · 26 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 3rd 19:20Penalty
  • 3rd 19:28Georgii Merkulov (0–5)5v4 · high · 19 ft · beat Colten Ellis