AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 10

Manitoba Moose at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Manitoba Moose
3:6
Final
Iowa Wild

The sheet

MBIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
38%62%
xG
2.52.5
High danger
13
Chances
89
Shots
3532

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
IA above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal32
8Scoring chances9
1High-danger chances3
2.52Expected goals2.46

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–83–21–10.8–0.6
2nd8–171–40–10.5–1.3
3rd18–74–30–11.1–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jesper Wallstedt
Shots faced
35
Saves
32
Allowed
3
xGA
2.52
GSAx
-0.48
Collin Delia
Shots faced
32
Saves
26
Allowed
6
xGA
2.46
GSAx
-3.54

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:33Penalty
  • 1st 5:03Ville Heinola (1–0)low · wrist · 39 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 1st 6:30Penalty
  • 1st 9:13Penalty
  • 1st 18:02Penalty
  • 1st 18:35Luke Toporowski (1–1)5v4 · low · wrist · 48 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 1st 18:51Will Butcher (1–2)low · wrist · 54 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 2nd 4:23Brad Lambert (2–2)low · 36 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 2nd 6:45Penalty
  • 2nd 13:08Caedan Bankier (2–3)low · wrist · 44 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 2nd 13:26Simon Johansson (2–4)medium · 18 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 2nd 18:56Steven Fogarty (2–5)low · 34 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 3rd 7:59Kevin Conley (2–6)low · slap · 42 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 3rd 9:11Dmitry Kuzmin (3–6)low · 28 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt