Utica Comets at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Utica Comets

2:3

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

UTCROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 2.72.3
High danger: 42
Chances: 86
Shots: 3523

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal23

8Scoring chances6

4High-danger chances2

2.67Expected goals2.30

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–13	1–5	1–2	0.4–1.6
2nd	20–4	6–0	3–0	1.9–0.3
3rd	10–6	1–1	0–0	0.4–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 33
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.67
GSAx: +0.67

Erik Källgren

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 20
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.30
GSAx: -0.70

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 16:04Viktor Neuchev (0–1)medium · 27 ft · beat Erik Källgren
1st 17:50Penalty
1st 18:05Brett Murray (0–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Erik Källgren
2nd 7:05Joe Gambardella (1–2)medium · rebound · 49 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 12:07Penalty
2nd 16:11Topias Vilen (2–2)low · 32 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 16:56Brendan Warren (2–3)low · 15 ft · beat Erik Källgren
2nd 17:59Penalty