Ontario Reign at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Ontario Reign

6:2

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

ONTCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 2.63.6
High danger: 38
Chances: 1011
Shots: 3233

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal33

10Scoring chances11

3High-danger chances8

2.62Expected goals3.65

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–7	4–3	1–2	1.1–0.6
2nd	9–13	3–4	0–3	0.7–1.4
3rd	10–13	3–4	2–3	0.8–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	3	11:23 of the 3rd	8:37	8:37	+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aaron Dell

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.65
GSAx: +1.65

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 26
Allowed: 6
xGA: 2.62
GSAx: -3.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:13Penalty
1st 0:13Penalty
1st 4:14Penalty
1st 9:20Adam Klapka (0–1)high · tip · 9 ft · beat Aaron Dell
1st 10:11Kevin Connauton (1–1)low · slap · 63 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
1st 13:20Penalty
1st 15:13Adam Klapka (1–2)5v4 · medium · wrist · 29 ft · beat Aaron Dell
1st 17:30Steven Santini (2–2)low · wrist · rebound · 59 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 4:17Tyler Madden (3–2)low · tip · 27 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 7:06Penalty
2nd 14:13Steven Santini (4–2)medium · tip · 11 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 7:47Penalty
3rd 11:23Charles Hudon (5–2)medium · snap · 22 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 13:55Penalty
3rd 15:38Penalty
3rd 17:13Nikita Pavlychev (6–2)empty net · low · wrist · 42 ft · beat Oscar Dansk