Rockford IceHogs at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Rockford IceHogs

4:3

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

RFDTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

35%65%

xG: 2.53.2
High danger: 45
Chances: 1011
Shots: 2734

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal34

10Scoring chances11

4High-danger chances5

2.49Expected goals3.17

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–7	2–2	1–1	0.5–0.6
2nd	12–17	6–6	2–2	1.3–1.6
3rd	8–10	2–3	1–2	0.7–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	2	12:12 of the 3rd	7:48	7:48	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 31
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.17
GSAx: +0.17

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.49
GSAx: -1.51

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:53Penalty
1st 9:14Penalty
1st 18:37Rem Pitlick (1–0)medium · 18 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 4:57Curtis McKenzie (1–1)high · 6 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 11:21Ryder Rolston (2–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 15:06Colton Dach (3–1)grade A · 10 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 16:22Jalen Luypen (4–1)empty net · low · 84 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 16:32Penalty
3rd 17:06Fredrik Karlström (4–2)4v5 · medium · 14 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 19:38Penalty
3rd 19:42Oskar Bäck (4–3)5v4 · grade A · 8 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber