Henderson Silver Knights at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Henderson Silver Knights

0:4

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

HSKTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

21%79%

xG: 2.74.7
High danger: 311
Chances: 1121
Shots: 3133

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal33

11Scoring chances21

3High-danger chances11

2.73Expected goals4.68

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–17	4–10	2–6	1.1–2.2
2nd	8–6	4–3	1–0	0.8–0.5
3rd	10–10	3–8	0–5	0.8–1.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jiří Patera

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.68
GSAx: +0.68

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 31
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.73
GSAx: +2.73

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:12Austin Poganski (0–1)high · 6 ft · beat Jiří Patera
1st 4:17Colin Theisen (0–2)high · 11 ft · beat Jiří Patera
1st 5:19Penalty
1st 8:53Penalty
1st 8:53Penalty
1st 8:53Penalty
1st 8:53Penalty
1st 14:47Ben McCartney (0–3)high · 5 ft · beat Jiří Patera
1st 15:49Penalty
2nd 7:47Penalty
2nd 10:30Penalty
2nd 14:00Penalty
2nd 18:38Penalty
2nd 19:02Jan Jeník (0–4)5v4 · medium · 42 ft · beat Jiří Patera
3rd 0:15Penalty
3rd 9:07Penalty
3rd 12:43Penalty
3rd 17:32Penalty
3rd 17:32Penalty