Rockford IceHogs at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Rockford IceHogs

3:5

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

RFDTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

43%57%

xG: 2.82.7
High danger: 35
Chances: 109
Shots: 3131

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal31

10Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances5

2.84Expected goals2.72

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–12	3–3	1–2	0.9–1.0
2nd	10–13	4–5	2–2	1.0–1.3
3rd	12–6	3–1	0–1	0.9–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	2	12:12 of the 3rd	7:48	7:09	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 26
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.72
GSAx: -2.28

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.84
GSAx: -0.16

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:40Penalty
1st 11:34Penalty
1st 12:02Lukas Reichel (1–0)5v4 · medium · 37 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 12:19Penalty
1st 17:28Penalty
1st 17:28Penalty
1st 17:28Penalty
1st 17:28Penalty
1st 17:28Penalty
1st 17:28Penalty
1st 18:10Penalty
2nd 5:39Derrick Pouliot (1–1)low · 60 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 11:40Penalty
2nd 17:21David Gust (2–1)low · 25 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 19:02Penalty
2nd 19:02Penalty
2nd 19:09Mavrik Bourque (2–2)high · 11 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 19:26Penalty
2nd 19:58Curtis McKenzie (2–3)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 3:16Jack Becker (2–4)high · 17 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 3:44Penalty
3rd 3:44Penalty
3rd 3:44Penalty
3rd 4:59Penalty
3rd 16:17Cole Guttman (3–4)low · 49 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 18:27Curtis McKenzie (3–5)empty net · low · 33 ft · beat Drew Commesso