AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, March 13

Ontario Reign at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Ontario Reign
1:2
Final
San Diego Gulls

The sheet

ONTSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
94%6%
xG
3.40.7
High danger
31
Chances
121
Shots
4213

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SD above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

42Shots on goal13
12Scoring chances1
3High-danger chances1
3.44Expected goals0.74

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–64–01–01.0–0.3
2nd17–27–11–11.7–0.2
3rd13–51–01–00.7–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ONT−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ONT116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Calle Clang
Shots faced
42
Saves
41
Allowed
1
xGA
3.44
GSAx
+2.44
Erik Portillo
Shots faced
13
Saves
11
Allowed
2
xGA
0.74
GSAx
-1.26

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:35Penalty
  • 1st 1:35Penalty
  • 1st 4:41Penalty
  • 1st 10:43Nikita Nesterenko (0–1)low · 45 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 1st 15:38Robert Hägg (0–2)low · 58 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 2nd 0:36Samuel Fagemo (1–2)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 2nd 3:56Penalty
  • 2nd 8:26Penalty
  • 2nd 8:26Penalty
  • 2nd 9:41Penalty
  • 3rd 1:14Penalty
  • 3rd 2:03Penalty
  • 3rd 2:03Penalty
  • 3rd 16:39Penalty