Bakersfield Condors at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Bakersfield Condors

1:4

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

BAKABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

67%33%

xG: 2.42.4
High danger: 41
Chances: 65
Shots: 2738

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal38

6Scoring chances5

4High-danger chances1

2.44Expected goals2.38

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–13	3–4	2–1	1.0–1.1
2nd	7–15	1–1	1–0	0.5–0.9
3rd	11–10	2–0	1–0	0.9–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	2	12:55 of the 3rd	7:05	7:05	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 34
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.38
GSAx: -1.62

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.44
GSAx: +1.44

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:10Matvey Petrov (1–0)high · rebound · 11 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
1st 7:32Penalty
1st 17:11Penalty
1st 17:11Penalty
1st 17:11Tristen Nielsen (1–1)low · 17 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 11:04Max Sasson (1–2)medium · 16 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 12:55Sheldon Dries (1–3)low · 14 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 18:07Sheldon Dries (1–4)empty net · low · 121 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue