Belleville Senators at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Belleville Senators

2:4

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

BELSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

38%62%

xG: 1.72.9
High danger: 22
Chances: 89
Shots: 2131

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal31

8Scoring chances9

2High-danger chances2

1.71Expected goals2.92

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	2–17	1–5	0–1	0.1–1.3
2nd	8–8	2–2	1–1	0.7–1.0
3rd	11–6	5–2	1–0	0.9–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mads Søgaard

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.92
GSAx: -1.08

Hugo Alnefelt

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.71
GSAx: -0.29

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:16Angus Crookshank (1–0)medium · 27 ft · beat Hugo Alnefelt
1st 13:13Penalty
1st 15:43Penalty
2nd 0:19Daniel Walcott (1–1)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 5:48Penalty
2nd 6:06Garrett Pilon (2–1)5v4 · high · 23 ft · beat Hugo Alnefelt
2nd 9:35Penalty
2nd 13:12Penalty
2nd 13:12Penalty
2nd 14:41Lucas Edmonds (2–2)low · 13 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 5:32Penalty
3rd 5:36Cole Koepke (2–3)5v4 · low · 57 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
3rd 7:19Penalty
3rd 15:42Penalty
3rd 16:40Penalty
3rd 18:59Declan Carlile (2–4)empty net · low · 41 ft · beat Mads Søgaard