AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 15

Toronto Marlies at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Toronto Marlies
3:5
Final
Rochester Americans

The sheet

TORROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
89%11%
xG
4.71.7
High danger
81
Chances
144
Shots
4425

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ROC above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

44Shots on goal25
14Scoring chances4
8High-danger chances1
4.75Expected goals1.73

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–161–30–10.6–1.2
2nd15–56–04–01.8–0.3
3rd21–47–14–02.4–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TOR−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TOR38:39 of the 3rd11:2111:21+0.016 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi
Shots faced
44
Saves
41
Allowed
3
xGA
4.75
GSAx
+1.75
Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
25
Saves
20
Allowed
5
xGA
1.73
GSAx
-3.27

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:24Logan Shaw (1–0)low · 14 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 1st 6:28Mason Jobst (1–1)low · 19 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 8:02Penalty
  • 1st 8:35Penalty
  • 1st 14:37Nikita Novikov (1–2)low · 46 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 19:21Jiří Kulich (1–3)low · 38 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 19:41Roni Hirvonen (2–3)high · 12 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 3rd 1:31Isak Rosén (2–4)low · 28 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 3rd 5:05Penalty
  • 3rd 8:39Viktor Neuchev (2–5)medium · 30 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 3rd 12:57Penalty
  • 3rd 12:57Penalty
  • 3rd 19:53Josiah Slavin (3–5)grade A · rebound · 27 ft · beat Devon Levi