AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 15

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds
4:3
Final / SO
Ontario Reign

The sheet

CVONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
35%65%
xG
2.42.6
High danger
14
Chances
811
Shots
2825

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal25
8Scoring chances11
1High-danger chances4
2.39Expected goals2.63

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–83–10–00.7–0.6
2nd6–71–50–20.5–0.9
3rd10–93–51–20.9–1.1
OT2–11–00–00.2–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ONT−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ONT116:56 of the 3rd3:041:51+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aaron Dell
Shots faced
28
Saves
25
Allowed
3
xGA
2.39
GSAx
-0.61
Chris Driedger
Shots faced
25
Saves
22
Allowed
3
xGA
2.63
GSAx
-0.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:32Kole Lind (1–0)medium · 25 ft · beat Aaron Dell
  • 1st 9:08Penalty
  • 1st 9:08Penalty
  • 1st 13:21Penalty
  • 1st 13:21Penalty
  • 2nd 0:17Samuel Fagemo (1–1)high · 7 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 2nd 2:36Penalty
  • 2nd 2:36Penalty
  • 2nd 5:37Penalty
  • 2nd 6:59Martin Chromiak (1–2)high · 12 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 2nd 11:45Penalty
  • 2nd 16:13Penalty
  • 2nd 19:11Penalty
  • 3rd 4:23Penalty
  • 3rd 7:12Logan Morrison (2–2)high · 11 ft · beat Aaron Dell
  • 3rd 12:45Marian Studenic (3–2)medium · 21 ft · beat Aaron Dell
  • 3rd 18:47T.J. Tynan (3–3)high · 17 ft · beat Chris Driedger