AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 15

Milwaukee Admirals at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Milwaukee Admirals
3:5
Final
San Diego Gulls

The sheet

MILSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
74%26%
xG
3.01.9
High danger
43
Chances
97
Shots
3422

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SD above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal22
9Scoring chances7
4High-danger chances3
2.97Expected goals1.89

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–83–31–10.8–0.8
2nd7–113–31–10.7–0.8
3rd17–33–12–11.5–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−3−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL30:00 of the 3rd20:0019:09+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Calle Clang
Shots faced
34
Saves
31
Allowed
3
xGA
2.97
GSAx
-0.03
Yaroslav Askarov
Shots faced
22
Saves
17
Allowed
5
xGA
1.89
GSAx
-3.11

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:50Chase De Leo (0–1)low · 37 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 1st 19:16Nikita Nesterenko (0–2)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 2nd 5:53Penalty
  • 2nd 6:14Andrew Agozzino (0–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 2nd 7:05Penalty
  • 2nd 13:50Penalty
  • 2nd 14:21Joakim Kemell (1–3)5v4 · low · 43 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 2nd 17:23Glenn Gawdin (1–4)low · 50 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 3rd 8:15Penalty
  • 3rd 10:31Penalty
  • 3rd 11:45Phil Tomasino (2–4)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 3rd 16:22Penalty
  • 3rd 16:32Cody Hodgson (3–4)5v4 · medium · 14 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 3rd 19:52Chase De Leo (3–5)empty net · low · 85 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov