AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 16

Rochester Americans at Toronto Marlies

Scotiabank Arena · Toronto, ON

Rochester Americans
3:7
Final
Toronto Marlies

The sheet

ROCTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
27%73%
xG
2.11.9
High danger
02
Chances
47
Shots
3328

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TOR above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal28
4Scoring chances7
0High-danger chances2
2.15Expected goals1.90

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–112–10–00.5–0.6
2nd18–122–30–21.1–0.8
3rd8–50–30–00.6–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ROC−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ROC213:58 of the 3rd6:026:02+0.026 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Luke Cavallin
Shots faced
33
Saves
30
Allowed
3
xGA
2.15
GSAx
-0.85
Dustin Tokarski
Shots faced
28
Saves
21
Allowed
7
xGA
1.90
GSAx
-5.10

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:33Penalty
  • 1st 8:02Penalty
  • 2nd 1:51Nick Abruzzese (0–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 2nd 5:10Penalty
  • 2nd 5:17Dylan Gambrell (0–2)5v4 · high · 31 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 2nd 5:41Penalty
  • 2nd 5:41Penalty
  • 2nd 5:41Penalty
  • 2nd 5:41Penalty
  • 2nd 5:41Penalty
  • 2nd 8:33Brandon Biro (1–2)medium · 8 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
  • 2nd 15:33Viktor Neuchev (2–2)low · 30 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
  • 2nd 18:44Logan Shaw (2–3)low · 46 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 2nd 19:05Mason Jobst (3–3)medium · 25 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
  • 3rd 1:03Kieffer Bellows (3–4)medium · 16 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 3rd 13:58Kieffer Bellows (3–5)medium · 25 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 3rd 15:19Penalty
  • 3rd 15:40Penalty
  • 3rd 17:08Joseph Blandisi (3–6)empty net · low · 134 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 3rd 19:21Mikko Kokkonen (3–7)empty net · low · 186 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski