Syracuse Crunch at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Syracuse Crunch

1:4

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

SYRHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

33%67%

xG: 1.52.1
High danger: 22
Chances: 410
Shots: 1620

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

16Shots on goal20

4Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances2

1.54Expected goals2.14

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–7	1–4	1–0	0.9–0.7
2nd	2–9	0–4	0–1	0.1–1.0
3rd	7–4	3–2	1–1	0.6–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 16
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.14
GSAx: -1.86

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 15
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.54
GSAx: +0.54

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:50Penalty
1st 8:19Penalty
1st 12:45Gabriel Fortier (1–0)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 4:38Pierrick Dubé (1–1)medium · rebound · 46 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
2nd 17:21Penalty
2nd 17:36Jimmy Huntington (1–2)5v4 · grade A · 11 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
3rd 0:34Riley Sutter (1–3)low · 72 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
3rd 8:42Penalty
3rd 8:48Penalty
3rd 13:24Penalty
3rd 17:07Riley Sutter (1–4)empty net · low · 63 ft · beat Brandon Halverson