Bridgeport Islanders at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Bridgeport Islanders

2:4

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

BRIBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

59%41%

xG: 2.51.5
High danger: 22
Chances: 95
Shots: 3124

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal24

9Scoring chances5

2High-danger chances2

2.49Expected goals1.55

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–4	5–1	1–0	1.2–0.4
2nd	7–13	2–3	0–1	0.5–0.7
3rd	11–7	2–1	1–1	0.8–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:32	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.49
GSAx: +0.49

Henrik Tikkanen

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 20
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.55
GSAx: -2.45

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:44Penalty
1st 5:09Garrett Pilon (0–1)5v4 · low · 56 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
2nd 0:27Egor Sokolov (0–2)low · 55 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
2nd 4:12Julien Gauthier (1–2)low · 46 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 7:10Penalty
2nd 10:42Egor Sokolov (1–3)medium · 24 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
2nd 17:23Penalty
3rd 16:36Seth Helgeson (2–3)grade A · rebound · 26 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
3rd 19:20Garrett Pilon (2–4)empty net · low · 46 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
3rd 19:42Penalty