Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

5:2

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

LVPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

60%40%

xG: 3.42.7
High danger: 64
Chances: 118
Shots: 3931

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal31

11Scoring chances8

6High-danger chances4

3.44Expected goals2.70

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–10	2–5	0–3	0.6–1.2
2nd	15–10	1–3	1–1	1.1–0.8
3rd	13–11	8–0	5–0	1.8–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 34
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.24
GSAx: -0.76

Parker Gahagen

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.70
GSAx: +0.70

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:01Penalty
1st 2:08Penalty
1st 2:08Penalty
1st 3:07Patrick Brown (0–1)5v4 · grade A · 12 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
1st 4:25Penalty
1st 11:07Penalty
1st 12:01Georgii Merkulov (0–2)5v4 · low · 35 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
1st 13:05Penalty
1st 13:05Penalty
1st 13:05Penalty
1st 17:08Adam Brooks (1–2)low · 17 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
1st 18:27Penalty
2nd 0:39Tanner Laczynski (2–2)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 3:36Adam Brooks (3–2)low · 38 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 8:37Penalty
2nd 11:08Penalty
2nd 18:03Penalty
2nd 19:26Penalty
3rd 2:31Tanner Laczynski (4–2)grade A · 7 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 7:43Penalty
3rd 10:34Penalty
3rd 10:34Penalty
3rd 10:34Penalty
3rd 10:34Penalty
3rd 10:34Penalty
3rd 10:34Penalty
3rd 10:34Penalty
3rd 10:34Penalty
3rd 10:34Penalty
3rd 10:34Penalty
3rd 10:34Penalty
3rd 13:31Penalty
3rd 18:43Tanner Laczynski (5–2)empty net · high · 12 ft
3rd 20:00Penalty