Iowa Wild at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Iowa Wild

2:5

Final

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

IAGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

44%56%

xG: 3.03.2
High danger: 66
Chances: 912
Shots: 2930

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal30

9Scoring chances12

6High-danger chances6

3.04Expected goals3.15

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–10	1–6	0–3	0.6–1.6
2nd	6–12	2–5	1–2	0.7–1.0
3rd	15–8	6–1	5–1	1.8–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Zane McIntyre

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 25
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.15
GSAx: -1.85

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.04
GSAx: +1.04

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:04Penalty
1st 10:28Penalty
1st 10:28Penalty
1st 11:23Penalty
1st 13:47Dominik Shine (0–1)low · 36 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
1st 15:14Penalty
1st 15:29Luke Toporowski (1–1)5v4 · medium · 7 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 4:50Sammy Walker (2–1)low · 31 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 5:40Cross Hanas (2–2)high · 6 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
2nd 9:34Penalty
2nd 11:24Penalty
2nd 13:29Matt Luff (2–3)low · 27 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
2nd 14:26Penalty
2nd 17:21Penalty
2nd 17:21Penalty
2nd 17:21Penalty
3rd 2:47Penalty
3rd 9:14Marco Kasper (2–4)low · 25 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
3rd 9:24Penalty
3rd 18:25Joel L’Esperance (2–5)empty net · high · 5 ft · beat Zane McIntyre