AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 16

Manitoba Moose at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Manitoba Moose
6:2
Final
Chicago Wolves

The sheet

MBCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
68%32%
xG
2.72.1
High danger
42
Chances
136
Shots
2933

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CHI above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal33
13Scoring chances6
4High-danger chances2
2.70Expected goals2.09

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–133–32–10.8–0.9
2nd13–89–02–01.5–0.4
3rd5–121–30–10.3–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CHI−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CHI214:18 of the 3rd5:425:42+0.025 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic
Shots faced
33
Saves
31
Allowed
2
xGA
2.09
GSAx
+0.09
Antti Raanta
Shots faced
29
Saves
23
Allowed
6
xGA
2.70
GSAx
-3.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:54Parker Ford (1–0)high · 17 ft · beat Antti Raanta
  • 1st 8:12Penalty
  • 1st 14:02Penalty
  • 1st 14:02Penalty
  • 1st 14:02Penalty
  • 1st 14:02Penalty
  • 1st 16:31Tory Dello (1–1)low · 65 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 1st 16:39Penalty
  • 1st 17:35Penalty
  • 1st 17:35Penalty
  • 2nd 5:40Penalty
  • 2nd 5:51Henri Nikkanen (2–1)4v5 · medium · 30 ft · beat Antti Raanta
  • 2nd 9:05Penalty
  • 2nd 9:05Penalty
  • 2nd 9:54Penalty
  • 2nd 10:53Penalty
  • 2nd 19:05Penalty
  • 2nd 19:15Parker Ford (3–1)5v4 · medium · 39 ft · beat Antti Raanta
  • 3rd 0:48Penalty
  • 3rd 5:55Penalty
  • 3rd 10:29Penalty
  • 3rd 11:20Nathan Sucese (3–2)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 14:03Penalty
  • 3rd 14:18Nikita Chibrikov (4–2)5v4 · low · 65 ft · beat Antti Raanta
  • 3rd 18:20C.J. Suess (5–2)empty net · low · 94 ft · beat Antti Raanta
  • 3rd 19:09Henri Nikkanen (6–2)medium · 17 ft · beat Antti Raanta