Calgary Wranglers at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Calgary Wranglers

1:3

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

CGYCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

66%34%

xG: 3.32.5
High danger: 83
Chances: 1410
Shots: 2830

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal30

14Scoring chances10

8High-danger chances3

3.34Expected goals2.52

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–8	2–1	0–0	0.3–0.5
2nd	13–12	5–6	2–2	1.3–1.4
3rd	9–10	7–3	6–1	1.7–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	2	16:52 of the 3rd	3:08	3:08	+0.014 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Murphy

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.52
GSAx: -0.48

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 27
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.34
GSAx: +2.34

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:54Penalty
1st 11:54Penalty
1st 12:50Penalty
1st 12:50Penalty
2nd 1:45Penalty
2nd 5:31Peter Holland (0–1)high · 9 ft · beat Connor Murphy
2nd 6:11Penalty
2nd 15:49Penalty
2nd 15:49Penalty
2nd 16:58Penalty
2nd 16:58Penalty
3rd 5:51Penalty
3rd 6:31Penalty
3rd 7:15Jack Ahcan (0–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Connor Murphy
3rd 8:09Adam Klapka (1–2)5v4 · high · 23 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 11:14Penalty
3rd 14:36Penalty
3rd 16:52Riley Tufte (1–3)high · 10 ft · beat Connor Murphy