Ontario Reign at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Ontario Reign

0:4

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

ONTBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

16%84%

xG: 1.83.1
High danger: 15
Chances: 312
Shots: 2934

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal34

3Scoring chances12

1High-danger chances5

1.78Expected goals3.11

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–8	1–3	1–1	0.6–0.8
2nd	13–15	2–4	0–3	0.8–1.4
3rd	6–11	0–5	0–1	0.4–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.025 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 30
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.11
GSAx: -0.89

Jack Campbell

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 29
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.78
GSAx: +1.78

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:17Dylan Holloway (0–1)low · tip · 40 ft · beat Erik Portillo
1st 9:45Penalty
2nd 4:42Max Wanner (0–2)low · snap · 29 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 5:17Penalty
2nd 6:28Lane Pederson (0–3)4v5 · grade A · wrist · 13 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 12:59Penalty
3rd 0:47Penalty
3rd 4:21Penalty
3rd 16:15Phil Kemp (0–4)empty net · low · wrist · 108 ft · beat Erik Portillo