Texas Stars at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Texas Stars

1:4

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

TEXTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

47%53%

xG: 3.02.9
High danger: 57
Chances: 1213
Shots: 2627

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal27

12Scoring chances13

5High-danger chances7

3.04Expected goals2.95

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–10	3–6	1–2	0.7–1.2
2nd	7–9	5–3	3–2	1.0–0.9
3rd	12–8	4–4	1–3	1.4–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.95
GSAx: -1.05

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 25
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.04
GSAx: +2.04

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:03Penalty
1st 10:02Penalty
1st 11:00Penalty
1st 13:55Milos Kelemen (0–1)low · 54 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 18:26Mavrik Bourque (1–1)high · 10 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 11:57Penalty
2nd 17:02Montana Onyebuchi (1–2)low · 59 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 3:20Penalty
3rd 6:42Nate Smith (1–3)high · 13 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 18:45Justin Kirkland (1–4)empty net · low · 78 ft · beat Rémi Poirier