AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 16

Henderson Silver Knights at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Henderson Silver Knights
7:3
Final
Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

HSKABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
63%37%
xG
3.53.1
High danger
85
Chances
1511
Shots
2937

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ABB above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal37
15Scoring chances11
8High-danger chances5
3.52Expected goals3.07

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st14–78–35–12.1–0.7
2nd10–114–31–10.7–0.8
3rd5–193–52–30.7–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ABB−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ABB40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jiří Patera
Shots faced
37
Saves
34
Allowed
3
xGA
3.07
GSAx
+0.07
Nikita Tolopilo
Shots faced
23
Saves
18
Allowed
5
xGA
2.78
GSAx
-2.22
Zach Sawchenko
Shots faced
6
Saves
4
Allowed
2
xGA
0.73
GSAx
-1.27

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:39Aidan McDonough (0–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Jiří Patera
  • 1st 7:42Ryan Dzingel (1–1)grade A · 7 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 1st 9:17Jakub Demek (2–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 1st 14:57Penalty
  • 1st 15:07Ryan Dzingel (3–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 1st 18:34Penalty
  • 2nd 4:01Penalty
  • 2nd 13:01Jakub Demek (4–1)low · 46 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 14:19Mason Morelli (5–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 3rd 1:35Grigori Denisenko (6–1)high · 23 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
  • 3rd 4:05Penalty
  • 3rd 4:37Penalty
  • 3rd 6:20Penalty
  • 3rd 6:20Penalty
  • 3rd 9:07Penalty
  • 3rd 9:41Max Sasson (6–2)5v4 · medium · 16 ft · beat Jiří Patera
  • 3rd 13:36Aidan McDonough (6–3)low · 21 ft · beat Jiří Patera
  • 3rd 17:59Byron Froese (7–3)empty net · low · 182 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko