Iowa Wild at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Iowa Wild

3:2

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

IACHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

48%52%

xG: 3.23.0
High danger: 66
Chances: 1313
Shots: 3030

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal30

13Scoring chances13

6High-danger chances6

3.17Expected goals2.98

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–12	0–4	0–2	0.3–1.3
2nd	15–14	10–8	5–3	2.1–1.4
3rd	8–4	3–1	1–1	0.7–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	1	19:46 of the 3rd	0:14	0:14	+0.004 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Adam Scheel

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.17
GSAx: +0.17

Jesper Wallstedt

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.98
GSAx: +0.98

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:18Penalty
1st 13:23Penalty
1st 14:14Nathan Sucese (0–1)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
1st 17:42Penalty
2nd 0:31Penalty
2nd 3:14Penalty
2nd 4:09Nathan Sucese (0–2)5v4 · high · 18 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
2nd 5:18Penalty
2nd 5:18Penalty
2nd 5:45Penalty
2nd 6:53Penalty
2nd 10:26Penalty
2nd 12:42Gavin Hain (1–2)low · 32 ft · beat Adam Scheel
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 2:09Brenden Miller (2–2)low · 37 ft · beat Adam Scheel
3rd 11:29Penalty
3rd 15:15Penalty
3rd 19:46Sammy Walker (3–2)high · rebound · 8 ft · beat Adam Scheel