Laval Rocket at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Laval Rocket

1:7

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

LAVTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

50%50%

xG: 3.63.2
High danger: 58
Chances: 1613
Shots: 3125

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal25

16Scoring chances13

5High-danger chances8

3.56Expected goals3.19

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–12	3–6	0–5	0.6–1.4
2nd	16–6	8–4	3–2	1.9–1.1
3rd	9–7	5–3	2–1	1.1–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LAV	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.56
GSAx: +2.56

Kasimir Kaskisuo

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 10
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.79
GSAx: -1.21

Jakub Dobeš

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 8
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.39
GSAx: -2.61

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:41Penalty
1st 6:39Kieffer Bellows (0–1)5v4 · low · 37 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
1st 7:54Joseph Blandisi (0–2)high · 12 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
1st 9:17Penalty
1st 15:20Penalty
1st 15:20Penalty
1st 15:22Penalty
1st 18:16Roni Hirvonen (0–3)high · 16 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
1st 19:34Penalty
1st 19:42Nick Abruzzese (0–4)5v4 · high · 24 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
2nd 2:32Penalty
2nd 6:24Penalty
2nd 8:01Emil Heineman (1–4)5v4 · low · 45 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 10:15Dylan Gambrell (1–5)grade A · 6 ft · beat Kasimir Kaskisuo
2nd 11:22Penalty
3rd 4:03Joseph Blandisi (1–6)medium · 26 ft · beat Kasimir Kaskisuo
3rd 10:56Penalty
3rd 10:56Penalty
3rd 16:31Matteo Pietroniro (1–7)low · 66 ft · beat Kasimir Kaskisuo
3rd 19:39Penalty
3rd 19:57Penalty