AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 17

Hartford Wolf Pack at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Hartford Wolf Pack
0:4
Final
Hershey Bears

The sheet

HFDHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
37%63%
xG
2.33.1
High danger
67
Chances
912
Shots
2627

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HER above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal27
9Scoring chances12
6High-danger chances7
2.29Expected goals3.13

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–111–41–20.4–1.0
2nd10–95–43–21.1–1.1
3rd9–73–42–30.7–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HFD−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HFD311:18 of the 3rd8:428:42+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand
Shots faced
27
Saves
23
Allowed
4
xGA
3.13
GSAx
-0.87
Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
26
Saves
26
Allowed
0
xGA
2.29
GSAx
+2.29

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:11Penalty
  • 1st 1:19Ethen Frank (0–1)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 1st 10:20Penalty
  • 2nd 10:04Penalty
  • 2nd 19:44Alex Limoges (0–2)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 3rd 11:18Riley Sutter (0–3)high · 7 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 3rd 14:13Ryan Hofer (0–4)high · 24 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 3rd 16:09Penalty
  • 3rd 18:28Penalty