AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 17

San Jose Barracuda at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

San Jose Barracuda
1:4
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

SJRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
58%42%
xG
2.92.5
High danger
55
Chances
109
Shots
3525

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal25
10Scoring chances9
5High-danger chances5
2.87Expected goals2.53

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–115–63–31.0–1.4
2nd13–84–12–01.2–0.5
3rd13–61–20–20.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SJ−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SJ30:41 of the 3rd19:1919:19+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso
Shots faced
35
Saves
34
Allowed
1
xGA
2.87
GSAx
+1.87
Eetu Makiniemi
Shots faced
25
Saves
21
Allowed
4
xGA
2.53
GSAx
-1.47

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:03Penalty
  • 1st 5:01Mike Hardman (0–1)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 1st 8:04Penalty
  • 1st 12:28Cole Guttman (0–2)medium · 28 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 1st 13:31Penalty
  • 1st 14:52Ethan Cardwell (1–2)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 1st 16:18Penalty
  • 1st 17:22Penalty
  • 2nd 4:40Penalty
  • 2nd 15:03Penalty
  • 2nd 18:21Cole Guttman (1–3)medium · 13 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 3rd 0:41Jackson Cates (1–4)high · rebound · 13 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 3rd 7:17Penalty
  • 3rd 7:17Penalty
  • 3rd 19:01Penalty