AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 17

Texas Stars at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Texas Stars
3:6
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

TEXTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
70%30%
xG
3.72.6
High danger
53
Chances
1510
Shots
3530

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal30
15Scoring chances10
5High-danger chances3
3.67Expected goals2.64

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–69–24–11.6–0.5
2nd7–152–61–10.8–1.4
3rd16–94–20–11.2–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX35:11 of the 3rd14:4914:49+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Wells
Shots faced
35
Saves
32
Allowed
3
xGA
3.67
GSAx
+0.67
Matthew Murray
Shots faced
30
Saves
24
Allowed
6
xGA
2.64
GSAx
-3.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:11Penalty
  • 1st 12:09Penalty
  • 1st 16:51Travis Barron (0–1)low · 36 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 18:05Penalty
  • 2nd 5:01Penalty
  • 2nd 5:04Matěj Blümel (1–1)5v4 · medium · 34 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 2nd 9:09Penalty
  • 2nd 19:47Josh Doan (1–2)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 0:33Josh Doan (1–3)5v4 · medium · 41 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 5:11Aku Räty (1–4)low · 41 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 8:03Ben McCartney (1–5)high · 15 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 9:31Penalty
  • 3rd 10:15Penalty
  • 3rd 10:39Cody Haiskanen (2–5)low · 50 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 3rd 13:56Mavrik Bourque (3–5)medium · 24 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 3rd 19:55Vladislav Kolyachonok (3–6)empty net · low · 163 ft · beat Matthew Murray