Henderson Silver Knights at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Henderson Silver Knights

3:8

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

HSKABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

9%91%

xG: 1.63.2
High danger: 07
Chances: 214
Shots: 2129

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal29

2Scoring chances14

0High-danger chances7

1.63Expected goals3.18

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–14	1–10	0–4	0.7–1.8
2nd	6–7	0–2	0–1	0.4–0.7
3rd	7–8	1–2	0–2	0.5–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	5	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Isaiah Saville

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 21
Allowed: 8
xGA: 3.18
GSAx: -4.82

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 18
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.63
GSAx: -1.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:51Linus Karlsson (0–1)high · 15 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
1st 1:00Aatu Räty (0–2)medium · 29 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
1st 1:41Penalty
1st 4:15Penalty
1st 5:16Aatu Räty (0–3)5v4 · high · 33 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
1st 9:54Brendan Brisson (1–3)low · 38 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
1st 12:21Penalty
1st 12:21Penalty
1st 12:21Penalty
1st 12:58Tristen Nielsen (1–4)5v4 · high · 15 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
1st 13:42Penalty
1st 14:22Sheldon Dries (1–5)5v4 · medium · 15 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
1st 16:26Grigori Denisenko (2–5)low · 21 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
1st 17:58Penalty
2nd 13:04Penalty
2nd 14:21Arshdeep Bains (2–6)5v4 · high · rebound · 45 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
2nd 17:15Marc Gatcomb (2–7)low · 35 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
3rd 1:11Brendan Brisson (3–7)low · 29 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 5:21Penalty
3rd 5:33Marc Gatcomb (3–8)5v4 · high · 22 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
3rd 9:19Penalty
3rd 17:36Penalty
3rd 17:36Penalty
3rd 18:56Penalty