Bakersfield Condors at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Bakersfield Condors

1:2

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

BAKCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

29%71%

xG: 2.54.1
High danger: 49
Chances: 814
Shots: 2931

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal31

8Scoring chances14

4High-danger chances9

2.47Expected goals4.07

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–9	2–1	2–1	0.7–1.1
2nd	11–11	3–7	1–4	1.0–1.5
3rd	10–11	3–6	1–4	0.8–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jack Campbell

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 4.07
GSAx: +2.07

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.47
GSAx: +1.47

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:27Penalty
1st 10:21Penalty
1st 14:26Jonathan Aspirot (0–1)grade A · 44 ft · beat Jack Campbell
2nd 9:48Penalty
2nd 11:03Penalty
2nd 12:43Penalty
2nd 12:56Adam Erne (1–1)low · wrist · 26 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 13:58Penalty
2nd 15:16Mitch McLain (1–2)5v4 · high · wrist · 8 ft · beat Jack Campbell
2nd 16:42Penalty
2nd 19:14Penalty
3rd 13:56Penalty
3rd 16:58Penalty